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  • MLB Picks for 4/3/23

    Hello everyone! Going forward I will be making picks using OddsJam. OddsJam is an odds comparison website that allow users to compare odds on different sports books and make positive expected value plays. Access to this data allows bettors to beat the no-vig odds and earn long term profits.

    You can sign up for OddsJam using my affiliate link and try it free for 7 days. If you’re not happy with the product you can cancel and get a full refund.

    With that being said, on to the picks!

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  • Phillies @ Nationals GM 1 – 6/17

    It’s gonna be a hot one in our nation’s capital today!

    This write up is for game 1 at 1:05 PM
    Philadelphia has been resurgent as of late winning eight of their last ten. They’ve scored almost six runs per game and mashed 19 home runs during that stretch with an .878 team OPS. Washington has been pretty much the polar opposite going 2-8 in the last 10 games, not even 4 runs per game, 11 home runs, a team .705 OPS. But we don’t care about yesterday, we care about the today! And today runs will be scored, likely more than ten runs. We can attribute this to the sub-par starting pitcher going for each team today.

    The Phillies should continue their offensive ways against Joan Adon, he of some of the worst Statcast numbers. Adon has a .377 wOBA with an xwOBA of .396. And his ERA is a bloated 6.95. At least his ERA is expected to improve(?) to a robust 6.17. These ratios put him in the bottom 8% of the league.

    And even though the Nats haven’t been scoring a ton of runs lately, they should be able to do damage against Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez. His numbers aren’t quite Adon-ian, but they are still bad with not much improvement expected (.334 wOBA/.331 xwOBA and 4.40 ERA/4.04 xERA). An interesting note about the Nationals is that even though they have been inept at scoring runs they have been exceptional at making contact, especially against lefties. They have the lowest K% in MLB against lefties, tied with the Astros.

    Lastly, let’s take a look at ballpark hitting conditions. They look glorious! Temperatures in the 90s and strong winds blowing out to right field I’m expecting runs today folks!

    My Pick: Over 11 total runs @ +100/-105

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  • MLB Pitcher Props – 6/1

    Maybe the Raiders will come back some day…

    Is it actually June already?!? Hello folks. I’ve been experimenting with different types of MLB bets so far this season – first 5 innings, race to X runs, total bases props, you name it! But the one bet that I have had solid success with so far is pitcher strikeout props. Here’s a few I like today.

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  • Rockies @ Giants – 5/11

    If you squint hard enough you can see the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum

    More day baseball picks! The Colorado Rockies visit the San Francisco Giants for the final game in a three game series at 3:45pm today. Two right handers will toe the rubber, with Chad Kuhl going for the Rockies and Alex Cobb on the mound for the Giants. When you look at the surface numbers for the starters it would appear Kuhl has the advantage – he’s sporting a .215 wOBA! But he has been very lucky so far. Kuhl’s expected ERA is more than a run higher than his actual. He’s stranding a lot of runners (85.6 LOB%), has an unsustainable .179 BABIP and 6.7% HR/FB rate. Meanwhile Cobb has insane Statcast numbers. His .192 xwOBA and 1.27 xERA are both in the top 1% of MLB.

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  • Brewers @ Reds – 5/11

    The Greatest American Ball Park… for hitting overs

    We have a nice early pick today for the 12:35pm start time between Milwaukee and Cincinnati. The Reds bats have gotten hot as of late. They are scoring 5.1 runs per game over their last 10, and 7 runs per game over their last five. Mike Moustakas is back from the injured list and playing well (.488 OBP, 1 HR, 5 RBI last 14 days). Still no Joey Votto though, who has been out since May 3. The Brewers are starting Adrian Houser today who pitched against the Reds in Milwaukee last week and gave up 5 runs (4 earned) over 5 innings. Houser is also due for some regression. He has a .279 wOBA/.334 xwOBA and a 3.42 ERA/3.91 xERA. The Great American Ball Park will also feature good hitting conditions with only 4 MPH winds and an 83 degree temperature at first pitch. I like the Reds to hit the over on their team total runs.
    My Pick: Cincinnati o3.5 runs -105

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  • MLB Day Game Picks – 5/5

    Ballpark food tastes oh so good in thin air

    Reds @ Brewers – 1:40 PM
    Adrian Houser has been ramping up his innings over his first four starts – 3.2, 5.2, 6 and 6. He should have no problem getting into the sixth inning against Cincinnati. The Reds rank last in many categories this year. The two important ones for today are strike out rate (26.4%) and wOBA (.266). Houser is likely due for regression (2.53 ERA/4.11 xERA) but I don’t think that slide begins against this opponent. His modest 6.75 K/9 will likely increase after today. I like Houser to get at least 5 strikeouts against the most strikeout-prone team in MLB.
    My Pick: Houser o4.5 strikeouts +125

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  • 2022 NHL Playoff Picks – First Round

    Which team will be drinking beer out of this bad boy come June?

    Hurricanes vs Bruins
    Frederik Andersen will miss the first game of the series, and possibly more. Antti Raanta will start between the pipes for the ‘Canes to begin the series, and while he has been solid this year, I don’t think he will be able to withstand the onslaught of pucks a healthy Bruins team will sling at him. Whoever Boston goes with in net, Jeremy Swayman or Linus Ullmark, will be able to keep Boston in the series. Andersen is expected back at some point so I think that Carolina will weather the storm until he returns.
    My Picks: Carolina to win series -120, Carolina to win series 4-3 +450, Boston to win Game 1/Carolina to win series +450

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  • Angels @ White Sox – 5/2

    ‘Da Cell

    Let’s keep it going on this first Monday in May with some more day baseball action! The Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox finish off their 4-game wraparound series today on the South Side. We get a great young pitching matchup with lefty Patrick Sandoval going for LA and righty Dylan Cease on the mound for the Chi Sox. Both have had great starts to their season. Sandoval hasn’t allowed an earned run yet! Cease has a respectable 3.27 ERA, but really could be a lot lower – his FIP is 2.50.

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  • Royals @ Cardinals – 5/2

    My first MLB pick of the season! Kansas City is coming off a sweep at home at the hands of the Yankees and look dreadful at the plate. They aren’t striking out much (actually have the best team K% in MLB) but are making pretty weak contact. Zack Greinke will go for the Royals, while St. Louis will start Steven Matz.

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  • Boston Bruins @ St. Louis Blues – 4/19

    We get a good one here in a rematch of the 2019 Stanley Cup combatants. St. Louis is scorching hot right now – 9-0-1 and 5.40 goals per game over their last 10 games. And they have won their last 5 home games. On the other hand, Boston has been treading water over their last 10 games – 5-5-0 and 3.30 goals per game. They are sorely missing star forward David Pastrnak. He did not travel with the team on their current road trip.

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