This write up is for game 1 at 1:05 PM
Philadelphia has been resurgent as of late winning eight of their last ten. They’ve scored almost six runs per game and mashed 19 home runs during that stretch with an .878 team OPS. Washington has been pretty much the polar opposite going 2-8 in the last 10 games, not even 4 runs per game, 11 home runs, a team .705 OPS. But we don’t care about yesterday, we care about the today! And today runs will be scored, likely more than ten runs. We can attribute this to the sub-par starting pitcher going for each team today.
The Phillies should continue their offensive ways against Joan Adon, he of some of the worst Statcast numbers. Adon has a .377 wOBA with an xwOBA of .396. And his ERA is a bloated 6.95. At least his ERA is expected to improve(?) to a robust 6.17. These ratios put him in the bottom 8% of the league.
And even though the Nats haven’t been scoring a ton of runs lately, they should be able to do damage against Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez. His numbers aren’t quite Adon-ian, but they are still bad with not much improvement expected (.334 wOBA/.331 xwOBA and 4.40 ERA/4.04 xERA). An interesting note about the Nationals is that even though they have been inept at scoring runs they have been exceptional at making contact, especially against lefties. They have the lowest K% in MLB against lefties, tied with the Astros.
Lastly, let’s take a look at ballpark hitting conditions. They look glorious! Temperatures in the 90s and strong winds blowing out to right field I’m expecting runs today folks!
My Pick: Over 11 total runs @ +100/-105
AndyPicks 