Daily sports betting picks
Wow, can’t believe it’s May already, my birthday month. So you gotta be nice to me for the next 4 weeks. Today we’re going with some MLB picks found using OddsJam. Try OddsJam for yourself by signing up with my affiliate link.
We have a smaller 8 game slate today including a double header in Queens, but still some good prices to be found. On to the picks!
We went 2 for 3 in our first edition of +EV picks courtesy of OddsJam data. Let’s see if we can continue our run today with a glorious day baseball slate!
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To the picks!
More day baseball picks! The Colorado Rockies visit the San Francisco Giants for the final game in a three game series at 3:45pm today. Two right handers will toe the rubber, with Chad Kuhl going for the Rockies and Alex Cobb on the mound for the Giants. When you look at the surface numbers for the starters it would appear Kuhl has the advantage – he’s sporting a .215 wOBA! But he has been very lucky so far. Kuhl’s expected ERA is more than a run higher than his actual. He’s stranding a lot of runners (85.6 LOB%), has an unsustainable .179 BABIP and 6.7% HR/FB rate. Meanwhile Cobb has insane Statcast numbers. His .192 xwOBA and 1.27 xERA are both in the top 1% of MLB.
We have a nice early pick today for the 12:35pm start time between Milwaukee and Cincinnati. The Reds bats have gotten hot as of late. They are scoring 5.1 runs per game over their last 10, and 7 runs per game over their last five. Mike Moustakas is back from the injured list and playing well (.488 OBP, 1 HR, 5 RBI last 14 days). Still no Joey Votto though, who has been out since May 3. The Brewers are starting Adrian Houser today who pitched against the Reds in Milwaukee last week and gave up 5 runs (4 earned) over 5 innings. Houser is also due for some regression. He has a .279 wOBA/.334 xwOBA and a 3.42 ERA/3.91 xERA. The Great American Ball Park will also feature good hitting conditions with only 4 MPH winds and an 83 degree temperature at first pitch. I like the Reds to hit the over on their team total runs.
My Pick: Cincinnati o3.5 runs -105
Reds @ Brewers – 1:40 PM
Adrian Houser has been ramping up his innings over his first four starts – 3.2, 5.2, 6 and 6. He should have no problem getting into the sixth inning against Cincinnati. The Reds rank last in many categories this year. The two important ones for today are strike out rate (26.4%) and wOBA (.266). Houser is likely due for regression (2.53 ERA/4.11 xERA) but I don’t think that slide begins against this opponent. His modest 6.75 K/9 will likely increase after today. I like Houser to get at least 5 strikeouts against the most strikeout-prone team in MLB.
My Pick: Houser o4.5 strikeouts +125
AndyPicks 
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