Daily sports betting picks
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With that being said, on to the picks!
This write up is for game 1 at 1:05 PM
Philadelphia has been resurgent as of late winning eight of their last ten. They’ve scored almost six runs per game and mashed 19 home runs during that stretch with an .878 team OPS. Washington has been pretty much the polar opposite going 2-8 in the last 10 games, not even 4 runs per game, 11 home runs, a team .705 OPS. But we don’t care about yesterday, we care about the today! And today runs will be scored, likely more than ten runs. We can attribute this to the sub-par starting pitcher going for each team today.
The Phillies should continue their offensive ways against Joan Adon, he of some of the worst Statcast numbers. Adon has a .377 wOBA with an xwOBA of .396. And his ERA is a bloated 6.95. At least his ERA is expected to improve(?) to a robust 6.17. These ratios put him in the bottom 8% of the league.
And even though the Nats haven’t been scoring a ton of runs lately, they should be able to do damage against Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez. His numbers aren’t quite Adon-ian, but they are still bad with not much improvement expected (.334 wOBA/.331 xwOBA and 4.40 ERA/4.04 xERA). An interesting note about the Nationals is that even though they have been inept at scoring runs they have been exceptional at making contact, especially against lefties. They have the lowest K% in MLB against lefties, tied with the Astros.
Lastly, let’s take a look at ballpark hitting conditions. They look glorious! Temperatures in the 90s and strong winds blowing out to right field I’m expecting runs today folks!
My Pick: Over 11 total runs @ +100/-105
Is it actually June already?!? Hello folks. I’ve been experimenting with different types of MLB bets so far this season – first 5 innings, race to X runs, total bases props, you name it! But the one bet that I have had solid success with so far is pitcher strikeout props. Here’s a few I like today.
More day baseball picks! The Colorado Rockies visit the San Francisco Giants for the final game in a three game series at 3:45pm today. Two right handers will toe the rubber, with Chad Kuhl going for the Rockies and Alex Cobb on the mound for the Giants. When you look at the surface numbers for the starters it would appear Kuhl has the advantage – he’s sporting a .215 wOBA! But he has been very lucky so far. Kuhl’s expected ERA is more than a run higher than his actual. He’s stranding a lot of runners (85.6 LOB%), has an unsustainable .179 BABIP and 6.7% HR/FB rate. Meanwhile Cobb has insane Statcast numbers. His .192 xwOBA and 1.27 xERA are both in the top 1% of MLB.
We have a nice early pick today for the 12:35pm start time between Milwaukee and Cincinnati. The Reds bats have gotten hot as of late. They are scoring 5.1 runs per game over their last 10, and 7 runs per game over their last five. Mike Moustakas is back from the injured list and playing well (.488 OBP, 1 HR, 5 RBI last 14 days). Still no Joey Votto though, who has been out since May 3. The Brewers are starting Adrian Houser today who pitched against the Reds in Milwaukee last week and gave up 5 runs (4 earned) over 5 innings. Houser is also due for some regression. He has a .279 wOBA/.334 xwOBA and a 3.42 ERA/3.91 xERA. The Great American Ball Park will also feature good hitting conditions with only 4 MPH winds and an 83 degree temperature at first pitch. I like the Reds to hit the over on their team total runs.
My Pick: Cincinnati o3.5 runs -105
AndyPicks 
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