Are you ready for the first Monday Night Football game of the 2025 season? I sure am! Tonight, the Chicago Bears host the Minnesota Vikings in a matchup of two young, promising quarterbacks and a new coaching staff for the home team.
After perusing the different player props on offer, I thought I’d take a shot at J.J. McCarthy and his passing yards. The problem with predicting McCarthy’s performance is that he’s never thrown a pass in the NFL. And I don’t think looking at his NCAA numbers are helpful because I don’t believe the Michigan college offense translates to the pro level. So what can we do?
MIN/CHI Recent Head to Head
We can look at how Minnesota’s quarterback last year performed. In 2024 under head coach Kevin O’Connell, QB Sam Darnold averaged 254.1 passing yards per game. And in two games versus Chicago last season, Darnold had 330 and 231 yards passing. The Bears only allowed 218 pass yards per game last year, so Minnesota seems to have found a cheat code to beat Chicago’s pass defense.
The Vikings have two very solid running backs in Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. I would expect the Bears defense to emphasize stopping the run and tempt McCarthy to beat them with his arm. Minnesota seems to be confident that McCarthy can get the job done. Carson Wentz is their only viable backup and he hasn’t been NFL-worthy since his days with Philadelphia in 2020 when he led the league in interceptions and sacks.
I’ll admit that it’s risky to bet on a player making his first start at quarterback. But I think it’s the way to go because of recent history and how sharp sports books like Novig favor this outcome. At the time of writing, fair odds were around +/-112 which implies a 53% probability.
The Pick
J.J. McCarthy o220.5 passing yards -113 on FanDuel (50% boost to +132)
Do you agree or disagree with my assessment? Let me know in the comments!
AndyPicks 