MLS Betting Preview: Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution

Let’s take a peek at Major League Soccer and see if there’s anything worth betting on. Tonight at 8:30 PM the Chicago Fire will host the New England revolution in a battle between two clubs that appear to be equal based on the standings. Chicago and New England rank 10th and 11th on the Easter Conference table, respectively. However they are further apart in quality than first meets the eye.

Head to Head

The gap between the two teams in the standings is 8 points. Chicago has a slight edge versus New England all-time at 35-22-32 (W-D-L). The Fire are 2-1-1 in their last 5 MLS fixtures, while the Revolution are 2-0-3 over the same period. Chicago won the most recent match in the US Open Cup 3-1, with the Revolution winning the most recent MLS fixture 1-0 on May 4. Interestingly, the 6 fixtures prior to May 4 ended in a draw!

Metrics

Comparing the expected goal metrics separates these teams even more. New England actually has a slight expected goals allowed edge of 41.6 xGA on the season, compared with Chicago’s 43.7. However the Fire have significantly more offensive firepower with a season-long 42.4 expected goals while the Revolution’s metric sits much lower at 36.7 xG.

While neither team has a positive expected goal difference, Chicago betters New England by 3.6 goals (-1.3 vs -4.9)! Lastly, Chicago’s expected goal difference per 90 minutes is ever so slightly less than 0.00 (-0.05) while New England’s is much worse at -0.17 xGD/90. As a point of reference Philadelphia, the best team in MLS, has an xGD/90 of +0.68.

The Pick

So what does all this mean? We are going to take the Fire to triumph over the Revolution. You can bet this on the 3 way moneyline or -0.5 handicap. I chose to play this at FanDuel using their 30% soccer boost, bringing their -130 odds up to +100. The fair odds for Chicago to win outright should be around -119, which would imply a 54% probability. Even odds are a tremendous value for this wager.

Chicago Fire ML 3-way on FanDuel +100 (with profit boost)

Agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments!