I’m just gonna say it – we got hosed last time out. But whenever you get hosed, you pull yourself up from your bootstraps and hit the bricks! I’ve got three more tremendous pitcher props for the full Tuesday MLB slate. As always I’ll be using OddsJam to shop around for the best odds. You can try OddsJam for yourself by signing up with my affiliate link.
I’m also linking to the player pages at Baseball Savant because I love the Statcast data they provide. Now, on to the picks!
Tigers at Guardians – Shane Bieber Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+106 FanDuel)
Shane Bieber has had seasons with 10, 12, 14 K/9. But he’s a different pitcher now and getting it done in ways other than the strikeout. This year he has a career low 5.91 K/9(!!!). Now the Tigers do strikeout at a decent clip vs RHP with a MLB 6th worst 24.9% team K%. But Bieber has only struck out more than four batters in a game once in seven starts. I like him to go under 6.5 strikeouts at +106 on FanDuel.
Red Sox at Braves – Charlie Morton Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+104 FanDuel)
This will shock you to hear but Boston has the lowest (a.k.a. BEST) team K% vs RHP at 18.5%. Charlie Morton’s K/9 of 8.31 is a bit under his career rate of 8.5, but well below his 10.5 K/9 from 2021-2022. His K% is also sub-par in the 38th percentile (20.8%). As a result I like to see the books slightly leaning towards the under, and we can get a great plus-odds price of +104 at FanDuel.
Mets at Reds – Luke Weaver Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104 Caesars)
Luke Weaver is having a bit of a renaissance in 2023, at least in the strikeout department. Just don’t look at his 7.88 ERA. In two of his three starts he has struck out 8 batters. He’s bumped up his K/9 to 10.69 from his career rate of 9.28. And his K% this season is in the top 67th percentile. The only obstacle preventing Weaver from having a high strikeout total today is that the Mets have the 4th best/lowest K% vs RHP. But I like the prices I see in the market today, and since we need at least one over today I’m going with Weaver over 4.5 Ks for +104 on Caesars.
What do you think of these picks? Agree or disagree, let me know in the comments!
AndyPicks 