We had a perfect day yesterday, going 3 for 3 on picks. It won’t always be like that but let’s see what we can do with house money. As always I’ll be using OddsJam to shop around for the best odds. You can try OddsJam for yourself by signing up with my affiliate link.
Tuesday offers up a jam packed 15 game slate, so it can be hard to whittle down my picks to just three. But I did, so on to the picks!
Twins at White Sox – Joe Ryan Over 18.5 Outs (+173 Caesar’s)
Joe Ryan has been really solid this year. While he has given up some hard contact, he has featured an elite walk rate of 3.3%, which is top 7% in MLB. He’s also gone at least six innings in each of his five outings, while going 7 twice. Today we just need him to get one out in the seventh inning. And we are getting very favorable odds at Caesars.
Brewers at Rockies – Ryan Feltner Over 4.5 Strikeouts (Caesar’s +151)
Ryan Feltner is a pretty mediocre pitcher with a career 5.88 ERA. Probably doesn’t help that he’s started half of his games in the Mile High City. He has improved his ERA and xERA since his first year in the big leagues in 2021. But most importantly his K% has jumped by 5% this year. So while the Brewers are middle of the pack in team K% versus RHP, Feltner has gotten at least five strikeouts in three of five starts. We should also feel good about getting inflated odds at Caesars compared to the market. At +151 we are getting better than a 5% edge on the no-vig odds.
Angels at Cardinals – Steven Matz Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-112 FanDuel)
This last pick could be a roller coaster, so buyer beware. Matz’ strikeouts totals per game have been all over the map (7, 4, 6, 7, 3). But his K% is only 50th percentile, chase rate 14th percentile and hard hit rate 13th percentile. Those metrics likely won’t match up well against an Angels team that has the fourth lowest team K% vs LHP. Matz also doesn’t go deep into game, with 5 2/3 innings being his longest outing so far. This play isn’t quite positive expected value but it is close. It’s a better value than going over 5.5 because you should be getting closer to +111 odds. The market also favors the under, so that’s where we will be going today!
What do you think of these picks? Agree or disagree, let me know in the comments!
AndyPicks 