More day baseball picks! The Colorado Rockies visit the San Francisco Giants for the final game in a three game series at 3:45pm today. Two right handers will toe the rubber, with Chad Kuhl going for the Rockies and Alex Cobb on the mound for the Giants. When you look at the surface numbers for the starters it would appear Kuhl has the advantage – he’s sporting a .215 wOBA! But he has been very lucky so far. Kuhl’s expected ERA is more than a run higher than his actual. He’s stranding a lot of runners (85.6 LOB%), has an unsustainable .179 BABIP and 6.7% HR/FB rate. Meanwhile Cobb has insane Statcast numbers. His .192 xwOBA and 1.27 xERA are both in the top 1% of MLB.
With regard to the offenses, the Giants are scoring 5.3 runs per game over their last 10, and 7.2 runs per game over their last 5. The Rockies have scored 4.2 runs per game over their last 10, but only 2.4 runs per game over their last 5. It’s important to note that Colorado’s last 5 games have all been away from Coors Field where they hit much better. They are ranked 2nd in MLB in home wOBA and 18th in road wOBA. You could look at these stats and make several different deductions. My conclusion for this day is that San Francisco will score more runs, more quickly than Colorado.
My Pick: San Francisco Race to 4 Runs -113
AndyPicks 