#UPDATED#
Winnipeg comes into Toronto after beating Buffalo last night in a shoot out. It was pretty clear that Kyle Connor being out reduced the ability for the Jets to maintain any offensive pressure. Toronto announced this morning that Petr Mrazek will be out six weeks with a groin injury so Erik Kallgren will be in net tonight. He has made 4 career NHL starts all occuring in 2022. Winnipeg will also likely be starting their backup Eric Comrie in net. What does this all lead to?
Well it should lead to goals. Comrie has played well this year in 12 appearances with a .920 SV% and 2.39 GAA. But his career numbers are .904 SV% and 2.93 GAA so he is due for regression. Even with Winnipeg’s leading scorer Connors out due to COVID, they should be able to get at least 3 pucks past Kallgren. Tonight will be the Jets’ second game without Connors and they should be able to make the necessary adjustments to score a few more than last night.
On the Toronto side, you know the story here. Matthews, Marner, Tavares and gang have score 3.8 goals per game over their last 10 including 6 in their last game at Boston. I have no doubt Toronto should be able to get 3-4 past Comrie. My biggest edge in this game is Kallgren in net for the Leafs. He allowed 4 goals in relief of an injured Mrazek on Tuesday and I think he will put up a similar performance against Winnipeg. Kallgren was a 7th round draft pick in 2015 at 183rd overall, so he does not have prospect pedigree. Jack Campbell is expected back this weekend so he will be relegated to back up duty soon.
My Pick: Over 6.5 goals
Bonus Picks: Pierre-Luc Dubois over 0.5 goals, over 0.5 points, over 2.5 shots on goal. PLD was robbed of his 100th career goal last night at Buffalo and will look to hit the century mark tonight in Toronto. He has also averaged 3.4 SOG per game in his last 5.
Result: This one covered midway through the second period when the Leafs tied the game at 3-3. Sadly still no 100th goal pour mon garçon Pierre-Luc. Oddly enough he didn’t register a shot on goal either.
AndyPicks 